Fun with Graphs: A look at the competitiveness of various leagues

So everyone was shocked when the Celtics won a game against the mighty Cleveland Cavaliers ( Jesus,  we really must be nearing the end times.  I never thought I’d write that sentence!) and that got me to thinking.

Everyone assumes the NBA is a two-team league and everyone is just waiting for the Warriors and Cavs to meet again in the Finals.  Contrast that to the NHL where the 8th seeded Nashville Predators are headed to their first Stanley Cup Final against either the upstart Ottawa Senators or the Pittsburgh Penguins.

It also got me to thinking about Hippo’s EPL posts and how the English-speaking soccer public in the United States thinks the EPL is the best league in the world and everything and everyone else sucks donkey balls.

Thus,  I decided to break out my Excel skillz and do some graphs similar to what I’ve recently started doing for the AFL. These graphs show the table position for each club week by week through the end of the season just completed.

I decided to compare the EPL, La Liga (Spain), the Bundesliga (Germany), Ligue 1 (France), and Liga MX (Mexico). I originally wanted to include the Italian league but a) their season is not over yet,  and b) I couldn’t find a website that tracked their table standings week by week since the beginning of the year.

For all graphs except Liga MX,  the green box designates Champions League spots, the orange box designates Europa League spots, and the red box designates the relegation spots.

Let’s start with the EPL.

Everything was crazy for the first six weeks as there was a lot of movement due to the low number of games and the impact each game had on the standings.  By around week 11, the top teams are clearly defined and the only drama was a brief struggle for the last European spot,  which Everton held onto after week 18.

There was a flurry of movement in the middle of the pack all season,  but that was essentially meaningless as the top spots were never threatened.  It’s like there were two leagues within the same league.

Sunderland and Middlesbrough were doomed to relegation after week 28 and the only drama left at the end of the season was the battle to avoid the last relegation spot.

Now,  in the past,  I’ve promoted La Liga as a better league.  After seeing the graph,  I may need to revise that statement:

Like the EPL, there was a lot of movement in the beginning. Things settled down around week 12, though,  as most teams found their level. There was some late drama in the battle for the last Europa league spot, but the bottom three were set after week 6!

In addition,  there was very little movement in the middle of the pack after week 13. What does this tell me? You know how in NASCAR the drivers will tell you they had a fifth place car and were happy to come in third? In La Liga, the fifth place car came in fifth.

Let’s take a look at the Bundesliga:

The Bundesliga was extremely top-heavy as the top two teams did not change after week 8. While in the beginning it seems there were four tiers of teams,  the middle two tiers combined into one by the end of the year.

This led to some late season excitement as the final European spot was up for grabs until the final week and, while the bottom two were set after week 19, the battle to avoid being in the last relegation spot lasted until the final week.

Let’s take a look at Ligue 1:

If you thought the Bundesliga was top-heavy, take a look at Ligue 1! The top three were set after week 8. The rest of the league,  though,  was a flurry of activity,  specially midseason. By the end,  everyone found their level,  but there were some crazy ups and downs for many teams.

Both the last Europa league spot and the last relegation spot were contested until the end.

And then we get to Liga MX. Before I reveal the graph,  let me preface this by saying that the Mexican league has a weird system that is closer to an American league than the European leagues.

The top eight are assured playoff spots. Teams are seeded based on finishing position. In case of ties in the two-legged “liguilla” playoff series,  the higher-ranked team advances.

Thus,  there is an incentive for teams to finish as high as possible.  At the same time,  some teams are just happy to make it to the eight thinking they can get hot and go on a run at the end of the season.

Did I also mention that the Mexican league cuts the season in half and does a playoff for each half? Thus,  the “season” is only 17 games long.  This leads to all sorts of chaos as you will shortly see.

Are you fucking kidding me? I should also mention that coaches get fired after weeks 4, 5, or 6 if results don’t go right. This is essentially soccer on cocaine.

If you look closely,  though,  you will see that Atlas made the playoffs after being at the bottom in week 1 and that America climbed out of their early season hole to contend for the eight.

Heading into the final series this week,  Guadalajara (3 seed) plays UANL Tigres (7 seed) for the title. And Tigres is heavily favored to kick their asses because they “got hot” at the end of the year.

After all this,  what can we conclude?

If we equate competitiveness with the ability to move up and down the table,  Liga MX has everyone beat with Ligue 1 coming in second.

If you equate competitiveness with the ability of different teams to win the league,  Liga MX wins again,  but the playoff format necessarily skews that opinion.  Of the non-cocaine championship formats, the EPL, La Liga, and Ligue 1 had four teams in the top spot at some point in the season while the Bundesliga had two.

If you want to eliminate the craziness of the beginning of the season and just look at the table positions after week 3, only the EPL had three teams at the top spot the rest of the season while everyone else had two.  I wouldn’t really call that competitive.

If you look at “playoff” spots as the European places,  it is easier to compare Liga MX to the others. By that measure,  the Bundesliga and Ligue 1, in that order, come closest to matching Liga MX.

So,  would you rather have a league with a lot of competition in the middle for nothing and with the same teams at the top all season or a league where a larger number of teams can get into the prized spots?

Alls I know is

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ballsofsteelandfury
Balls somehow lost his bio and didn't realize it. He's now scrambling to write something clever and failing. He likes butts, boobs, most things that start with the letter B, and writing in the Second Person. Geelong, Toluca, Barcelona, and Steelers, in that order.
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King Hippo

The EPL this season was as drama-free as I have ever seen it, perhaps a stark “reversion to the mean” after all the Foxy Footy madness of the previous season.

blaxabbath

Fun with Graphs: The Story Behind the Repair of Jason Pierre-Paul

The Right Reverend Electric Mayhem

“Wait, there’s a cocaine league somewhere?” -Virginia McCaskey

BrettFavresColonoscopy

I haven’t heard of half these leagues, and the ones I have heard of are way past their prime.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

This one league is dead.

BrettFavresColonoscopy

Cross it off, then.