Is this the start of the inevitable (maybe) unraveling of The Shield’s best-laid plans? Hopefully for us watchers of games that’s not the case but I do stand by my prediction that there will be a break in play for a week or two if things get out of hand. I can’t get my head around how teams in Florida and Texas will be able to get through this unscathed, given their respective governor’s stance on The Covid. But hey, we’ve had four years practice of watching shit circumstances slowly unfold. Gird them loins, folks!
TO THE GAMES!
Texans/Titans:
Look for Henry to go buck wild in this spot-his only 200 yarder came against these guys last year and 4 out of 5 backfields have run for at least 140 vs Houston.
Bengals/Colts:
Your sneaky play here is Trey Burton-since wk. 4 he has a 19% target share and has led all Colts te’s with 35 routes run. The Cincy D has allowed the 3rd most targets to the position overall and the 2nd most red zone throws.
Falcons/Vikes:
In news that won’t shock you, opposing qb’s have an average rating of 125.1 vs Atlanta. The ground bound Vikes may want to toss a ball or three Thielen and Jefferson’s way. Or maybe new coach Morris has solved all of the Falcons’ woes this past week? [snorts]
Broncos/Pats:
Drew Lock was able to practice this week so Bye, Bye Bortles! As per usual the Pats are zipped lipped about Cam but I’m betting he plays. If Darnold can run for 84 yards against Denver, imagine where Newton’s wheels will take him.
Team/Giants:
Twere nice to see Alex Smith out there last week but the stat sheet wasn’t nearly as nice to him as the national media was. As a team, Team’s qb’s averaged 1.9 yards per pass play. If McLaurin isn’t doing anything Washington’s air O is doing nothing and those odds are good because cb Bradberry hasn’t allowed a single #1 wr more than 10 fantasy points this year.
Ravens/Eagles:
Wentz will get his ass blitzed for the 2nd week in a row but the good news is that he handled it well last week-he was 11-16 for 104, a TD and an intercept.
Browns/Steelers:
[point chasers insert Claypool into lineup] It’s worth a shot, right? Expect Pitt to shut down Cleveland’s healthy running game and force them to the air which isn’t a bad thing because the Steelers have given up big plays and OBJ and Landry are capable of just that.
Bears/Panthers:
Another sneaky fantasy play is Darnell Mooney-he’s #2 in target share now and since Foles took over the Bears have been passing at a 75% clip. (game scripts have influenced this) Mooney has aDOT of 15 and the Panthers give up the 7th most big plays.
Lions/Jags:
Detroit plays a vanilla man D that doesn’t do much to disguise coverages but they should take a run at Minshew. His clean pocket passer rating of 74.5 drops precipitously to 42.5 when he’s pressured.
Go man, go!
Why fight it.EVERYONE loves El Tractorcito.
The Oprys win!
Gotta love a good OT game.
Oh, Romeo.
Meanwhile, over in Lesser Footy fans acting reasonably:
“Morning reds, had quite a few messages of support over the silent protest for the derby. Let me remind people this would be socially distanced outside Anfield. Also a petition to get Pickford banned for the length of time VVD is injured will be set up to discuss in Parliament.”
Burrows with the inevitable rookie pick there.
EAGLES LEGEND TRAVIS FULGHAM DOWN
The missed field goal looks as large as a Colts fan now.
Bears fail to put it away on offense so they can ice it on defense. Pick and game
Ha nice edit
They made me do it
Matt Nagy is like 20% as smart as he thinks he is
Foles makes him smarter
Guys who wear visors are like that.
Nice for Cincy to call two running plays. Burrow was about to get into a rhythm.
Keeping the defense guessing!
Wait — is PHI down an entire 11 man squad?
40 yard run by Wentz because he’s literally the last man standing
Bridgewater to Moore < Wilson to Metcalf
Wish Teddy hadn’t gotten hurt. Think he’d have been a good QB in that class.
Burrows gonna be airing it out!
The cartoon picture of Rivers looks like the negotiator guy is Waco.
Ok, this 4th down is the whole game
The Bengals have a kicker named Bollucks and the Fat Humps have a kicker that wears Tom Henke glasses? The Clots/Bungals game is officially the Mister Congeniality Bowl!
Eagles just lost another right tackle
It’s Jack Driscoll, who I’m pretty sure is a tag champion in MLW
How is MLW? I’ve been meaning to watch the show
I only casually follow it because I can DVR it, but it’s like a 4+ week tape delay usually. For a while, it was basically AEW’s tag division on every episode, then during the pandemic, it was a greatest matches thing for each of its biggest names, but also had a weekly cooking show featuring LA Park which was fun
That 2 point attempt for WFT went WTF real quick
Is Rich Gannon an elite announcer? Or is he a discount Tony Romo?
I like Rich.
Are you saying that Tony Romo is a discount Rich Gannon?
Only when he’s playing football
I think Romo will prove to be better than Rich but Rich has the credentials right now. If you put Rich in a game over Tony, I wouldn’t call it the wrong move.
If you absolutely had to, which one would you sleep with in a cheap motel?
Romo
Pats don’t surrender a touchdown all game and still lose by 6 at home. Great fucking job, idiots.
Awful shame….
Well, I mean this Broncos squad is…tee hee hee….sneaky good. pffffft…
Elaborate please….
Yeah….They do not look good.
YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME – Washington, in a loss
<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-partner=”tweetdeck”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>With Ertz and Sanders out, the Eagles are now without their RB1, LT, LT2, LG, RG, RG3, RT, their top 3 WRs, and their top 3 TEs.</p>— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) <a href=”https://twitter.com/JimmyKempski/status/1317916933111664640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>October 18, 2020</a></blockquote>
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Is the science gonna tell us we need a five game preseason and we’re all just gonna collectively ignore that as we lock it in at one preseason game?
Kinda think the Eagles training staff is a clown car, really
I’m amazed that you can blanket train that much injury success — and that it isn’t just a known kind of program of certain simple exercises.
I’ll say it: this is bad football this year and I really enjoy watching it. I’m ready for a break from watching elite guy this take on dominant competition that and, instead, give me the 2020 Cincinnati Bengals.
Foles forgot any receiver not named Robinson
Fucking stupid Crennel going for two.
That’s the right call, isn’t it? 95% chance of hitting the PAT, which would force TEN to take a 50% chance for the two. That’s only a 47.5% chance of winning, assuming TEN scores a touchdown. 50% chance of your own 2PAT, that’s just a straight 50% chance to win.
Perhaps. I am not a math major. Now we got OT.
Let me check my math on this one. We’re assuming the Titans score a TD, otherwise this whole conversation is moot, and we’re assuming there’s no time left when they do so, otherwise this shit gets complicated.
If the Texans go for a PAT, there’s a 95% chance they’re up by 8, 5% chance they’re up by 7.
If the Texans go for a 2PAT, there’s 50% chance they’re up by 9, a 50% chance they’re up by 7.
If the Texans are up by 9, there’s a 100% chance they win.
If they’re up by 8, the Titans have to go for 2 at a 50% success rate, so 50% Texans win and a 50% chance we go into overtime (which, we’ll assume is a 50% win probability for both teams). Combined, that’s a 75% chance to win for the Texans if they go up by 8.
If they’re up by 7… well now we have to consider what the Titans will do. If the Titans go for 1, the Titans will have a 95% chance of tying the game, 5% chance of losing the game, and we’ll assume again that OT is 50/50, so the PAT is a 47.5% chance of winning for the Titans. If the Titans go for 2, that’s a 50% chance of winning the game and a 50% chance of losing the game, but that’s better than 47.5% so the Titans will presumably go for 2.
In that case, from the Texans’ perspective, being up by 7 is a 50% chance of winning.
So altogether, if they Texans go for the PAT, their win percentage is 0.95 * 0.75 + 0.05 + 0.50 = 73.75% chance of winning. If they go for the 2PAT, their win percentage is 0.50 * 1.00 + 0.50 * 0.50 = 75% chance of winning.
So going for 2 is the correct choice assuming standard conversion percentages.
Miles Sanders is also hurt
“You know who hurts? Everybody.”
-REM
As long as they’re on Philly’s offense
Right as we started dating, my wife went to a wedding of a girl who was marrying an NFL player. He went on to have a solid career — probably earned over $100 mill and got at least one ring — and my wife mentioned the bride the other day and I was like, “oh I bet her husband is retired; did they decide where they want to live?” My wife goes on to say how he’s really sore all the time and that’s been bothering him for years and all that. And I’m standing there all twisted over holding the kid and suffering from MY OFFICE INDUCED DEPRESSION and I’m like — I’m the same age as him and I’m sore all the time too. He has trouble sleeping? I have trouble sleeping. It can be hard to sleep once you’ve been not sleeping. Your knees go out in your late 30’s cuz they get all banged out. Know how I know? Mine are fucked because I never was hurt by anything til a guy took me out at 26. After that, never the same and subsequent hits each made them worse: it’s what’s happens. You don’t know what to do with your career in your late 30’s?? Wow! So original!
I get that he’s probably all beat to shit though. But no one likes to hear about your aches when they’ve got their own.
I know how you feel. 2 weeks ago, I was in the hallway of my apartment building and I got temporarily lost/had no clue where I was.
At least those pro athletes that made millions over their career have money to fall back on to retired whereas I’m going to need to work another 40 some odd years
I forget stuff a lot too sometimes but I think I may be addicted to marijuana.
You still won’t die of CTE so you have that going for you, which is nice
“Ah Bollocks!”
Is exactly what Bengals fans are saying right now after that missed field goal.
Of course, anyone watching football for the last 25 years saw the miss coming
You really think a bunch of southern Ohioans are saying “bollocks?”
Zack Ertz pulls up with an ankle injury because why not
33-7 would be bigger than 28-3.
Would be extra hilarous
Does Carson Wentz have a trench coat? Because if he does, I wouldn’t show up to practice on Tuesday. . .
It’s starting at right tackle next week
Flea Flickr executed by the Bungals!
Bengals/Colts tilt is watchable if you have pupils.
Eagles getting into “It wasn’t actually that close” territory now
And with a 55 yard Tucker kick, the Eagles are now in perfect position for a 3 point loss
I L’dOL
GIANTS D DOWN!
Crowder was the very last dude taken in the draft.
No longer irrelevant!
Browns so far behind that the network cuts away. Feels like the timeline is restoring itself.
Lock and Exploded
Rivers just checked into the Bates Motel
Not the Master Bates hotel, though, that’s sinful.
::Logs Off::
-Tim Tebow
Under name Ron Flotador
Filipe’ Rios
What a unfortunate play.
I’m objectively rooting against Burrows for a private and VERY loose affiliation (more of a, “I just don’t want this guy to enjoy being right,” situation with the guy) with Burrows.
That’s the best type of being right. Good luck
Pretty sure the best type of being right is what we’re watching with Kirk Cousins
Mitch who? — Bears fans
How long til Belichik hangs it up?
I think he’s going for Shula’s record for wins, myself.
41 wins behind. Checks out
That would be an amazing feat though.
Grumble grumble when I fuck Tom Brady s mom
*looks at DEN-NE play-by-play summary*
Like Billy Pilgrim, I have apparently become unstuck in time and am now residing sometime in the early 1990’s.
I think the return to reality for Pats fans after almost two decades is going to be just another component of 2020 sucking so hard.
But for everyone else it will probably be a bright spot in an otherwise shit year.
It’d be nice to see the Hate Parade with packed stadiums full of booing fans and cutting signs.
But this is good enough for 2020, in part, because I always thought Cam could be a great player with the right team — but even Belichik can’t figure out that Cam’s Seventh Seal.
And I’ll contend Cam was *ON* that SB run — but he can lose a step and grow so much elsewhere still that I think he could dominate. But I guess you perform a job so long one way, maybe it’s just too much to ask you to give up the way you know and think you can be successful with for a system you just never even considered when you were more of a threat.
Jason Croom, who absolutely is not a real person, has a TD for the Eagles
If I were Phillip Rivers, I’d say I’m going out for a pack of smokes and just never return.
The old Andy Luck
He’s not done breeding yet.
Another tie is in play in the NFC Are They Even Playing Football division.
Bengals Bengaled
HOU-TEN tilt approaching bananacakes-ness.
BOW WOW! for BANANACAKES!!!!!!
Bears get jobbed on PI. And we’re close again
Gal Gadot is going to play Cleopatra in a movie.
Narrator: WCS’ erection grew six inches that day (five inches bigger than normal)
More people talking about how problematic that movie is than people actually going to watch it.
I sure hope Patty Jenkins hires a better historian than the one she hired for Wonder woman 1: The First Avenger
“Watch Wonder Woman beat up evil Germans in World War I.” “You mean II?” “No.” “Hmm.”
I’ll still be jerking off to it.
Narrator: He will.