Advanced Stats: 2015 El Grupo de la Muerte

advanced-stats

Second only to gifs (jifs?) of pretty young ladies, the one thing that [DFO] Commentists seem to live for is analytics. So, cutesy intro aside, here’s an unbiased look at which divisions in 2015 were truly the Best of the Best (Plus the NFC East).

draft

I subscribe to the “you are what your record says you are” school of NFL analysis. I wouldn’t lean on it in college ball but, ignoring our annual cumulative insistence that Alabama/Ohio State/Baylor could defeat Detroit/Tampa Bay/Tennessee, NFL players and NFL teams are the cream of the crop. So, above, I’ve posted the first 20 picks of the 2016 (all non-playoff teams).

Hold on — before we go any further, I feel like I have a journalistic duty to remind any readers that the New England Patri*ts do not have a first round draft pick this year as punishment for their role in the equipment tampering scandal known as Ballghazi.

Ok, moving on now. So, upon cursory glance, half the divisions sent two teams to the post-season while the other half sent three. Those more opportunist divisions were the AFC/NFC West and AFC/NFC North. To check that this is a reasonable starting point, we can also compare the total wins of each division.
UntitledWe see that the NFC North, NFC West, and AFC West had above-average win totals so we’ll assume they’re good candidates. The AFC North, however, was an absolute disaster at the bottom of the division with CLE (3 wins, 1 in-division) and BAL (5 wins, 3 in-division) and fell below the league conference average. They were one of three conferences with two double-digit loss teams. Further weakening their case, their wildcard team (PIT) accounted for the division’s only playoff win by defeating their division champ (CIN) in the wildcard round.

The AFC South and NFC East, each with 9 and 7 champions, were the other two conferences with two double-digit loss teams. They’re out of contention.

Round 1: 2015 El Grupo de la Muerte: AFC West, AFC North, AFC South, AFC East, NFC West, NFC North, NFC South, NFC East

In further narrowing the field, we see that the two divisions with most cumulative wins each only sent one team to the playoffs — AFC East and NFC South. This is not entirely unexpected as, with the case of the AFC West, the top two teams feasted on the bottom of the division to get the wild card bid (KC lost only one division game, to the division champions, DEN). Historically, the idea of the AFC East as the strongest division in football seems silly and has typically been NE hammering on three bad teams to pad their numbers. Instead, the AFC East had the only 10-win non-playoff team (NYJ) and was the only division with three teams at-or-above .500. Additionally, their playoff representative was within two points of making the Super Bowl.

Now, has the guy who threw that pick been a career cheater? I don’t know. Maybe. Regardless, the numbers don’t lie and, head to head, that division looked better than the AFC North.

The NFC South is 2015’s ultimate outlier. 15-1 and undefeated outside the division with a ludicrous +192 point differential, the Carolina Panthers made 2014’s weakest conference the winningest in the NFL last season. Now, if you replaced CAR with an average division champion (approximately 11.1 to 11.6 wins), the three game swing would put the NFC South at 33 wins (more likely 34, as you’d expect one of those losses to be in-division), still very respectable and, given this is a worst-case scenario for the division, not yet a reason to eliminate them.

I’ll admit, that even feels weird to consider that this point.

Round 2: 2015 El Grupo de la Muerte: AFC West, AFC North, AFC South, AFC East, NFC West, NFC North, NFC South, NFC East

Of the remaining divisions, the playoff teams are really the determining factors. Only the NFC North champions, MIN, lost on wildcard weekend, while GB beat WAS in the wildcard before losing in the divisional round. The division won zero playoff games in which they were not favored.

Round 3: 2015 El Grupo de la Muerte: AFC West, AFC North, AFC South, AFC East, NFC West, NFC North, NFC South, NFC East

Now, I’m not going to get all Zymm about this, but here’s the representatives of the remaining divisions with their postseason win count and total division win count:

DEN + KC (4, 34)
NE (1, 36)
ARI, SEA (2, 35)
CAR (2, 36)

Very weak for the NFC West, where both ARI and SEA lost at CAR. NE was the only other team without a conference championship, so they’re out too.

Round 4: 2015 El Grupo de la Muerte: AFC West, AFC North, AFC South, AFC EastNFC West, NFC North, NFC South, NFC East

At this point, even without KC’s wildcard win (not surprisingly shutting out a, literally, fictional team), DEN’s domination in the Super Bowl alone gives the clear edge to the AFC West as the 2015 Group of Death winner!

Also because the Chargers are basically dead and Raiders fans will kill you.


As a bonus, if you flipped things over to look for the worst division in 2015, the AFC South is the clear favorite with two of the first five draft picks, including first overall; 0 post-season points, and 13 cumulative out of division wins. And thanks to the foolproof science that is NFL scheduling, the AFC South will be playing the AFC West next season. So, you know, enjoy that.

 

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blaxabbath
I sat on a jury years ago, 2nd degree attempted murder case. One day the defendant wore sneakers with his suit to court. It was that day I knew he was guilty.
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jjfozz

Not to threadjack, but the r/NFL over at Reddit has a post up about Deflategate, and the Tawmmy’s are out in force. It’s quite hilarious.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

Chris Jones’ balls were at the required temperature and pressure.

I dunno- they were a little more buoyant than regulation

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
entropy

I read the Twitter page it links to…. Jesus Christ, do these people think Adam Schefter is solely behind this whole thing?

entropy

Does this mean we get to lob mustard gas at the Tawmmy Boyz?

Sill Bimmons

Phosgene.

More humane.

Unsurprised

Fuck humane.

Sill Bimmons

We’re not animals.

entropy

You never let me have any fun.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

“Additionally, their playoff representative was within two points of making the Super Bowl.”

Pretty sure they were two points from a tie and probable OT, not a certain victory by any means.

King Hippo

I would have died, so the rest is irrelevant to me.

Wakezilla

“I have a journalistic duty”

That’s a lot more than most sports “journalists” can say these days. Also, he he, you said duty.

It’s also rather fitting you placed Miami in the blue ball section.

Also also, are you implying the the Football Cottagers have a good shot at making the playoffs? Or are you saying they’ll have a better shot at finishing 8-8 next year because they’re facing the AFC West SIIIIIDE?

Wakezilla

The owner of the Jags owns Fullham, who have the nickname Cottagers.

Sill Bimmons

I like the part when the one man tackles the other man.

SonOfSpam

The NFL Division champion is Jerry Richardson, who divides 3 by 5 to maximize his roster size.

Sill Bimmons

godDAMMIT

Don T

I still say the NFC East is the worst division on account of every god damn game being on prime time. Maybe the AFC South will do an NFC West and go from Fraudsburgh to, uh… South Elitesville?
/dips fingers in sulphuric acid

entropy

The AFC East is due for an extended stay in the basement soon, too, since Miami sucks, Buffalo is ready for their Rex hangover, the Jets will probably try and compete with Fitz again, and NE will suck sooner or later.

Don T

I dunno. We’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Pats since forever. That division has less drama than Goldilocks and the Three Bears.

montythisseemsstrangetome

I find the whole NFL to be pretty average, since the combined winning percentage of all 32 teams was just .500.

entropy

OUT—->

comment image?w=300&h=167

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

When we did our season predictions, we were going to take a look at who had the most pessimistic view of the NFL. I think American Pie Story was the most gloom-and-doom, predicting a combined record of 225-287 for all teams.

Beerguyrob

I like how the only videos are Tom Brady fails. That’ll get me through the day.

The Right Reverend Electric Mayhem

I prefer PCP.

entropy

I saw the new Ghostbusters trailer, which SUCKED, then these Brady fails, which were wonderful, then this from the new Frightened Rabbit album, and I decided today wasn’t bad after all:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBdsY_zsv_U&eml=2016March3%2F3222807%2F6086410&etsubid=37023599

(I know I throw these guys up here often, but they are a damn good band, and this is a damn good video about two lesbians. Someone check it out)

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

They ARE a good band.

entropy

No, band of Scots. Video about lesbians.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

I was nearly kilt by a Scottish Lesbian.

Don T

Good stuff, dynamite video.

BrettFavresColonoscopy
Teddy's Bridge Over Troubled Water

NFC North could be a frontrunner next season. Beating up on the AFC South and NFC East is gonna make for a pretty soft schedule.

montythisseemsstrangetome

DFO turned into Five-Thirty-Eight so gradually I hardly noticed.

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

Fun fact: Five thirty-eights was what Nicole Holder landed on.

montythisseemsstrangetome

“It wasn’t THAT fun.”

– Nicole Holder

jjfozz

Too many numberz, bring back the hottie gifs and pix.

I keed, when it comes to numbers I avoid them like Joe Flacco avoids chocolate ice cream.